BDI Analysis: Full Collection Search

Local monitoring is essential for identifying early warning signs. BDI produces regular national situation reports (SitReps) on key risk trends at the national and state level, disseminated to a vetted list of community leaders and organizations.

BDI produces regular state-focused situation reports (SitReps) on key risk trends and activity to help partners identify early warning signs of political or election violence in Michigan.

BDI produces regular state-focused situation reports (SitReps) on key risk trends and activity to help partners identify early warning signs of political or election violence in Arizona.

BDI produces regular state-focused situation reports (SitReps) on key risk trends and activity to help partners identify early warning signs of political or election violence in Pennsylvania.

BDI produces regular state-focused situation reports (SitReps) on key risk trends and activity to help partners identify early warning signs of political or election violence in North Carolina.

BDI produces regular state-focused situation reports (SitReps) on key risk trends and activity to help partners identify early warning signs of political or election violence in Georgia.

BDI assesses that the risk of disruption by actors of concern to the Rising Majority Movement Congress is low, based on a review of historic bad actor mobilization in the state and a scan of recent online activity. The risks of isolated security incidents, such as bomb threats or sole perpetrator attacks, are difficult to anticipate and could occur, but BDI analysts found no concerning posts in the days before the convening that might drive mobilizations or other incidents.

Drop boxes are a secure and accessible means for voters to drop off ballots instead of voting in person or by mail. Yet since 2020, political contention over drop boxes has been on the rise due to a combination of factors, including increased use of the drop box voting process amid the pandemic, false fraud narratives around the presidential election, and varied jurisdictional frameworks. Concerns over drop boxes spiked during the 2022 midterm elections, with candidates and media outlets flagging the threat of “armed vigilantes staking out drop box locations.” But did online discourse transfer to offline activity? And, if so, how prevalent was this activity? Using BDI’s new Drop Box Monitoring Dataset, this Issue Brief provides an assessment of in-person, offline mobilization at drop box sites through analysis of known, reported activity nationwide, alongside case studies of two states that saw a high concentration of incidents in 2022: Arizona and Pennsylvania. It finds that only limited offline monitoring activity was reported at drop box locations during the 2022 midterms, as well as during off-year elections in 2023. The analysis exposes a gap between online rhetoric and offline action and provides new insights into approaches that can help prepare communities for contentious activity around the 2024 election.

The eighth quarterly survey provides updated findings from the Q2 2024 nationally representative BDI-CivicPulse survey of local elected officials and school board members on their experiences of hostility. This wave surveyed over 400 local elected officials and 200 school board officials, putting the total number of participants across all eight survey waves at more than 3,500. This round of respondents was the first to be surveyed in the aftermath of the deadly shooting at former President Trump’s campaign rally in July. While levels of hostility faced by local elected officials remained consistently high from Q1 to Q2 ahead of the assassination attempt, there was a statistically significant increase in the proportion of local elected officials that said they were worried about future threats, harassment, and physical attacks following the shooting and moving into the election period. This research is produced as part of an ongoing joint project launched by BDI and CivicPulse in August 2022 to conduct quarterly national surveys of local officials on their experiences facing threats and harassment. These quarterly updates allow us to identify spikes or shifts in hostility and monitor important trends in threats and harassment as we enter the 2024 election cycle.

The June 2024 incident bulletin summarizes key political violence and conflict events in all 50 states.